Is Meta Planning a Prediction Markets App?
Over the past few years, prediction markets have gone from a fairly obscure area to something that is attracting a great deal of attention. The world of prediction markets may seem a long way from online baccarat, but there are some similarities. Both are, of course, gambling, and both can have favorable odds when used carefully. However, prediction markets are all about real-world events rather than cards, dice, or sports results.
The latest company reportedly looking at the idea is Meta. This month, reports emerged that Mark Zuckerberg has asked a small group of employees to work on a Meta prediction markets app that could compete with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The project is said to be known internally as Arena. However, there is no indication that Meta has decided to offer real-money betting in the future.
What Is Meta’s Arena App?
According to the reports, Arena would be a standalone mobile app rather than part of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, or Messenger. The idea is that users would make predictions about future events and see whether they were correct.
At least initially, the app would not involve real-money betting. Instead, it is expected to use a points-based system, similar to the currency used in video games. This would make Arena different from companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can buy and sell contracts linked to real-world outcomes.
Prediction markets can cover a huge range of subjects. Players may be asked to predict who will win an election, whether interest rates will change, how a company will perform, or what might happen in a major sporting event. The idea is that people put their own views to the test, and the market price reflects how likely other users think an outcome is.
Meta has not publicly confirmed the plans, and Reuters said it was unable to verify the original report independently. However, the reports suggest that it has not ruled out that possibility either. This means that Arena could begin as a free prediction game and later develop into something much more similar to existing prediction market platforms.
Meta Has Tried Something Similar Before
This would not be Meta’s first attempt at prediction markets. In 2020, Mark Zuckerberg and his company launched a product called Forecast through its New Product Experimentation unit. Forecast allowed users to make predictions about real-world events, but it did not involve real money.
The app did not gain much momentum, and Meta shut it down in 2022. At the time, prediction markets had not yet become as widely discussed as they are today. The 2024 US presidential election changed that, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket attracting far more attention from both users and investors.
The timing may therefore be better for Meta now than it was six years ago. Prediction markets are no longer something that only appeals to people interested in politics or finance. They are increasingly being treated as another form of entertainment, particularly when they include sporting events, celebrity news, and other subjects that people already discuss online.
Meta also has a major advantage that its competitors do not have. In April 2026, the company said that 3.56 billion people used at least one of its apps each day. Arena is reportedly being developed independently from those apps, but it is not difficult to see how Meta could eventually use Facebook or Messenger to encourage users to try it.
Why Prediction Markets Are Attracting Attention
The growing interest in prediction markets is easy to understand. They are simple to explain, and they give people a reason to follow news, politics, business, and sport more closely. Instead of simply reading about an event, users can make a prediction, follow the outcome, and win money.
For companies, there is also the potential for regular engagement. A user may only play online baccarat when they feel like having a casino session. However, someone using a prediction app could potentially return every day to check markets, follow news, or make new predictions.
There are complications as well. Prediction markets have faced increasing scrutiny in the US, particularly following reports of well-timed trades ahead of major political announcements. Critics have questioned whether people with access to confidential information could use these platforms to make money before the news becomes public.
This would become even more important if Meta ever decided to introduce real-money trading. A points-based app is one thing, but a platform where users can risk actual money would bring far more regulatory attention.
For now, the Meta prediction markets app is still somewhat of a rumor. It may never be released, and Meta has made no public announcement about it. However, the fact that a company of Meta’s size is reportedly interested shows how quickly prediction markets have moved into the mainstream.
Whether Arena eventually becomes a serious competitor to Kalshi and Polymarket remains to be seen. However, if it does launch, it could introduce prediction markets to an audience far larger than the industry has seen before.
