Macau’s Mass Market Baccarat Revenue Flat in Q1 2025
While online baccarat continues to thrive across much of the world, Macau baccarat revenue figures for the first quarter of 2025 show a more complex picture for the gaming hub. Macau is dealing with changing trends in its mass-market and VIP baccarat segments.
Mass-market baccarat generated MOP34.32 billion (approximately US$4.29 billion) in Q1, which was nearly 60% of Macau’s total gross gaming revenue (GGR) and shows that the segment has established itself as a cornerstone of Macau’s gambling industry. However, the first-quarter figures showed a slight decline of 0.76% compared to the same period in 2024, which has raised questions about whether mass baccarat has reached a plateau.
Figures upon Pre-Pandemic Levels
Despite this small drop, mass market baccarat revenue is still far better than it was prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. When compared to the first quarter of 2019, the current figures show an increase of nearly 15%, suggesting that there has been a move toward mass-market gambling in Macau’s casinos.
The VIP segment, which traditionally is a major contributor to Macau’s gambling economy, generated MOP14.45 billion (around US$1.8 billion), which is about 25% of total GGR. Although VIP revenue increased slightly by 0.54% compared to the previous year, it remains drastically below its historic highs and is down 61% from the same period in 2019. This sharp fall is largely attributable to strict new regulations introduced, in particular those that target junket operators, whose numbers have fallen from 235 in 2014 to just 24 today.
High-profile arrests and regulatory changes have had a huge impact on the VIP landscape. In particular, the imprisonment of important junket figures such as Suncity’s Alvin Chau and Tak Chun’s Levo Chan, who received lengthy sentences for illegal gambling and fraud. The arrests also made it clear that Macau is now committed to rooting out illegal activities and enforcing transparency. The impact has been a huge reduction in VIP gaming activity, which prompted casinos to move decisively toward mass-market and premium mass segments.
Innovations Sustaining Growth
An analyst at Seaport Research, Vitaly Umansky, has written about the growing importance of innovation, such as smart digital tables and side-bet enhancements in baccarat, to sustaining growth. Umansky argues that despite the current stagnation, these innovations could boost gaming revenue per player and provide some hope of renewed growth in coming quarters. Yet, he warned that wider economic challenges, including currency fluctuations and trade tensions, could hinder recovery in the near term.
In further good news for Macau’s economic outlook, China’s overall economic growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP rising by 5.4%. This encouraging sign suggests there is potential for increased player spending in Macau, especially among mass-market gamblers. Morgan Stanley strategist Xu Changtai described the first-quarter GDP as a “modestly positive indicator” that could translate into healthy momentum for the gaming sector.
A Mixed Outlook for 2025
Despite these hopeful indicators, the Macau government faces potential budgetary shortfalls. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai acknowledged that, given the sluggish start to the year, Macau’s GGR target of MOP240 billion for 2025 might be overly optimistic. If Macau falls short of the target of MOP19.2 billion monthly average, it would result in an immediate budget deficit. However, the government is hoping to avoid this through boosted consumer confidence and increased tourism.
Analysts at CLSA, the capital markets and investment group, including Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan, have projected a 1.8% growth in Macau’s GGR for the entire year, which is just slightly below government expectations. They expect gradual improvements, especially toward the second half of the year, as property prices in mainland China stabilize, which should boost consumer spending and confidence.
Overall, while Macau’s mass gaming baccarat market shows signs of stability, there are real challenges, particularly within the VIP segment. However, hopefully through a combination of innovation and the broader Asian economic recovery, growth will continue and the gaming hub will continue to thrive.
